Alejandra Serey ● Investigadora Postdoctoral

Climate change is driving new interactions between human communities and the environment. The impacts of climate extremes and the progressive patterns of changes in precipitation and temperature are creating new risk dynamics and a high diversity of ecological responses, new interactions between species, and adaptation pathways from society. Climate risk assessment is a crucial tool in current climate change science for developing adaptation and resilience plans and actions. In Chile, the recently enacted climate change law mandates the creation of climate action plans at the communal, basin, and regional levels, requiring climate risk studies as a first step to design adaptation processes, reduce climate risks, and foster resilience at different scales. Over the past decade, extremely unusual drought and large mass movement triggered by intense precipitation has produced important cost and life losses in the Mediterranean and Temperate territories, respectively. The mega-drought in the Mediterranean region has led to extensive tree mortality and forest decay, which is vary geographically diverse and heterogeneous, and remain unassessed in terms of impacts (exposition), vulnerability, and resilience. Years of extreme drought, known as "hyper-droughts," have the potential to profoundly impact biomass dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. The climatic conditions in the years preceding hyper-droughts play a crucial role in the response and resilience of tree species and forest communities, particularly concerning mortality, decomposition, growth, and regeneration processes. The effects of extreme drought can also trigger environmental changes that increase the risk of other hazards such as forest fires or heatwaves, resulting in areas where the climate risk increases, and consequently the priority for adaptation and resilience planning. In recent decades, massive mass movements, including landslides and debris flows, have become a significant climate hazard in North Patagonia, particularly associated with intense precipitation events. Understanding the frequency of mass movements and their relationship to intense precipitation and other climatic factors is essential for climate change action plans and climate risk assessment. In this context, our proposal aims to develop the first studies using multi-proxy techniques to enhance environmental information for climate risk assessment and integrate it into climate action plans in the Mediterranean and Temperate climate of Chile. First, we will identify and reconstruct the hyper-droughts in the Mediterranean area and pluvial extremes in North Patagonia using historical documents, instrumental and tree-ring records. We will analyze the hyper-drought records to assess the influence of prior climatic variability on forest response and resilience, as well as the drought vulnerability of different Mediterranean forests at high and mid elevations. This assessment will include estimations of structural and functional diversity. Simultaneously, we will reconstruct mass movements using remote sensing, historical documents, and dendrogeomorphology techniques. By examining the frequency of mass movements, we will investigate the role of pluvial extremes and climate variability in their occurrence, especially important for climate risk assessment in the North Patagonian fjord systems, where the extension of the "Carretera Austral" is planned in the near future. This project will generate one of the longest and most precise records of hyper-droughts in the Mediterranean climate and mass movements associated with pluvial events in the North Patagonian Andean fjords of Chile. Additionally, it will provide initial estimations of forest vulnerability to hyper-droughts in Chile. These records are essential environmental information for climate risk assessment and climate action plans mandated by the new climate change legislation in Chile. To ensure effective dissemination, we will communicate our results to the local community through infographics and seminars. We will engage with policy makers, such as Climate Change regional committees, local governments, and environmental risk public services, through meetings, workshops, and policy papers. Furthermore, we will promote the sharing of our results within the scientific community through scientific articles, research visits, international exchanges, and conference participation.

El presente trabajo, financiado por la Dirección de Equidad de Género y Diversidades de la Universidad de O’Higgins (Convocatoria 2022), busca evaluar las principales motivaciones y dificultades de las mujeres para ingresar a carreras de las Ciencias de la Ingeniería, titularse y continuar una carrera académica en la Región de O’Higgins. La Universidad Estatal de O’Higgins es una institución de 7 años que desde sus inicios ha promovido políticas para la equidad de género, sin embargo estas medidas pareciera ser aún insuficientes o no se le ha dado un seguimiento para ver su verdadero impacto en esta materia. La diferencia en el número de matrículas de mujeres vs hombres en carreras de Ciencias de la Ingeniería de Universidades chilenas es abismante, a pesar de la no existencia de diferencias inherentes/innatas entre hombres y mujeres que expliquen las brechas en los aprendizajes o trayectorias académicas en las matemáticas ( Bakker et al., 2021; Kersey et al., 2019; Lachance & Mazzocco, 2006; Spelke, 2005). Según Ing2030 (2018), el aumento de mujeres en carreras de ingeniería en Chile no ha sido significativo en un lapso de 10 años: 20% el año 2004 y 24% el año 2014. Tanto así que en el año 2019, el 7% de las mujeres que se titularon de pregrado en Chile, lo hicieron en las áreas de ciencia, tecnología, ingeniería y matemáticas (STEM), siendo el país con el porcentaje más bajo de los miembros de la OCDE (Ministerio de Ciencia, Tecnología, Conocimiento e Innovación, 2022). Para llevar a cabo este estudio se han usado metodologías cuantitativas y cualitativas. El estudio cuantitativo se realiza mediante encuestas online mientras que el estudio cualitativo es a través del desarrollo de Focus group. Se analizaron 468 encuestas online a estudiantes de enseñanza media de la Región de O’Higgins, 94 encuestas a estudiantes de las carreras de Ingeniería de la Universidad de O’Higgins y 25 encuestas a académicos(as) e investigadores del Instituto de Ciencias de la Ingeniería de la Universidad de O’Higgins. Adicionalmente, se analizaron los resultados de 3 focus groups a alumnas de enseñanza media de la comuna de Rancagua y 3 focus groups a alumnas de las carreras de Ingeniería de la Universidad de O’Higgins. Dentro de los resultados se observa que un 83% de los y las estudiantes de enseñanza media de la Región de O’Higgins considera que tanto hombres como mujeres avanzan con igual rapidez en sus carreras, un 84% de las y los estudiantes de carreras de Ingeniería de la Universidad de O’Higgins considera que mujeres y hombres tienen igualdad de avance en sus carreras, mientras que un 76% de académicos(as) e investigadores(as) estima que los hombres avanzan más rápido en su carrera. Se constató que estudiantes de enseñanza media, estudiantes de las carreras de ingeniería y académicas e investigadoras de la Región de O’Higgins experimentan brechas y barreras, sumado a la falta de confianza en sus capacidades y logros (Síndrome de la Impostora; Paterson & Vincent-Akpu, 2021). Adicionalmente, a pesar de considerar que en la Región de O’Higgins y en la Universidad de O’Higgins se promueve una cultura para la igualdad de género, el grupo en estudio tiene la creencia que las estudiantes y académicas de las Geociencias y Ciencias de la Ingeniería son más propensas a sufrir acoso. Asimismo, las estudiantes y científicas enfrentan importantes dificultades para compatibilizar la vida familiar y laboral. A través de este estudio buscamos visibilizar las principales dificultades que enfrentan estudiantes e investigadoras de esta área durante el desarrollo de su carrera. Tomar conciencia de la realidad de las mujeres en áreas STEM en la Región de O’Higgins permitirá tomar medidas más eficientes y eficaces tanto para la atracción como para evitar la fuga y/o estancamiento de estudiantes y científicas con alto potencial, permitiendo un acceso más igualitario en carreras STEM y un desarrollo en un espacio seguro y de respeto.

Landslides are an important landscape forming process, providing the main mechanism for sediment release from slopes to permit transportation through the fluvial system. Thus, in advecting mountain chains, landslides play a key role in allowing the development of a long-term dynamic equilibrium between uplift and erosion, and in reducing slopes to their threshold angle. In doing so, landslides can directly impact humans. Unfortunately, fatalities and material losses caused by landslides concentrate in areas with high degrees of marginalization, which indicates that the most marginalized populations are the most prone to experience the negative effects of landslides. The total landslide death toll in Chile is 1010 between 1928 and 2017, 54% of them in Central Chile (32.5°S – 35°S). A key question for the proposed research is what are the controlling factors affecting the temporal and spatial distribution of landslides in Central Chile (32.5°S-35°S)? The assessment of this question is relevant considering that landslides are an important natural hazard driven mainly by strong earthquakes and heavy rainfall, both triggers present in our country. Chile is one of the most seismically active countries on Earth and strong earthquakes are often associated with a chain of cascading hazards, such as ground shaking, liquefaction, tsunamis, and coseismic landslides. In tectonically-active mountain areas, landslides are also a major cause of fatalities and economic losses during and after great magnitude earthquakes. In fact, in Chile, there are two broad types of earthquake-induced landslides: interplate/megathrust and shallow crustal earthquakes. For example, the Mw 8.8 interplate/megathrust Maule earthquake in 2010 with a rupture length of around 450 km produced more than 1200 landslides widely distributed between 32.5°S and 38°S. On the other hand, current climate trends and future projections show in addition to temperature rise a decrease in winter rainfall, an increase in the frequency of flood events, increased summer rainfall, and a rise in the torrential nature of storms. Indeed, precipitation has been reduced since 2010 in central Chile, with a 20-40% rainfall deficit. This period of 10 consecutive dry years has been called around the region the Mega Drought. All these environmental conditions are correlated with landslide activity in Central Chile. For the more recent example, on 30 January 2021, an intense and short rainfall, accompanied by hail, affected the Central Valley of Chile (34.4°S), producing catastrophic hail-debris flows affecting the local communities. According to official reports issued by the National Emergency Office, these hail-debris flows affected 200 people, leaving one house destroyed, 52 with significant damage, and another 20 with minor damage. In recent years, landslide hazard and susceptibility maps have been developed mainly in metropolitan regions, nevertheless, none of them considered the evaluation of coseismic landslides. On the other hand, the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides is poorly studied and probably underreported in Central Chile, especially in O’Higgins and Maule regions. The purpose of this project is to identify the main characteristics of landslides that occur in Central Chile (32.5°-35°S), before and during a mega drought condition, in a zone affected by interplate/megathrust and shallow crustal earthquakes. It seeks to improve the understanding of their mechanics, temporal-spatial distribution, and geological controlling factors, obtaining quantifiable inputs for the development of a methodology for landslide hazard assessment that includes coseismic landslides and the effect of megadrought applicable to urban/territorial planning and disaster prevention strategies.